On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Kate Risch Choi is a senior product manager for treasury and payment solutions at BMO Harris Bank.
Tom Hutton is managing partner for XL Innovate, the venture capital arm of XL Catlin. After working as a Consultant at McKinsey and Company, Tom served for ten years as the first CEO of Risk Management Solutions, a pioneer and global leader in providing risk modeling software, data and analytic services related to catastrophic risks to the insurance industry. His insurance career continued as CEO of White Mountains Re and board director of several insurance and reinsurance companies including XL Group, Safeco, Montpelier Re, Centre Cat, and Palomar Specialty.
In 2011, Tom founded New Energy Risk in partnership with XL Group. Tom served as CEO until the founding of XL Innovate in 2015, and currently serves as chairman. New Energy Risk addresses opportunities to apply insurance to support the development and financing of clean technology and renewable energy solutions and infrastructure, through an innovative form of insured technology performance.
Tom currently serves as a board director at several private and venture-backed companies including SoFi, a leading fintech company redefining consumer lending and financial services; Lemonade, a revolutionary personal lines insurance carrier; and Slice Labs, a provider of on-demand insurance in the sharing economy. Tom’s investments at XL Innovate also include Embroker, a tech driven commercial distribution company that is radically improving how mid-sized businesses buy and manage insurance coverage. Tom earned his BA in Economics and MS in Mechanical Engineering from Stanford University and his MBA from Harvard Business School. Tom is involved in several non-profit organizations with an emphasis on secondary school education and environmental issues. He recently served for several years as the President of Trustees at Phillips Exeter Academy, in New Hampshire.
Jim Brandenburg, CPA, MST, is a tax partner at Sikich LLP, a professional services firm. Jim has more than 35 years of experience and knowledge in corporate and partnership tax law, mergers and acquisitions, and tax legislation. He earned a bachelor’s degree in accounting and a master’s degree in taxation from the University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
