On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Kerry L. Myers is a clinical professor of forensic accounting and law at the Lynn Pippenger School of Accountancy at the University of South Florida. He is also assigned to the Florida Center for Cybersecurity at the University of South Florida. He earned his Juris Doctorate, with Distinction, from the University of Missouri – Kansas City School of Law and a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration-Accounting, Summa Cum Laude, from Central Missouri University. He is a licensed attorney in Missouri where he practiced law and was a federal prosecutor for many years. He recently retired from the Federal Bureau of Investigation where he served as the supervisory special agent of the Technical Operations Squad.
Christine Andrews is a clinical professor in the Lynn Pippenger School of Accountancy at the University of South Florida, teaching courses in managerial and cost accounting, and business strategy. She has more than 30 years of experience teaching accounting, in addition to a previous career as a CPA. She holds a Doctor of Business Administration degree from Cleveland State University, and an MBA and bachelor's degree from the University of Buffalo. Andrews has published more than 20 times, including in the Journal of Accountancy and the CPA Journal. Her research interests include fraud hotline effectiveness, accounting for environmental liabilities, and other pedagogical issues.
Scott is passionate about developing and unlocking the potential in people, creating a diverse and inclusive culture where everyone can thrive and succeed, and bringing this same passion to solving complex problems. He spent 15+ years at eBay where he was most recently Vice President of Customer Service Technology Solutions. He played a key role in expanding their operations in Utah and co-led the transformation of eBay’s global customer service with a focus on improving the customer experience while decreasing costs annually. Scott attended the University of New Mexico where he studied Business Administration.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
